| What Characteristics can influence how a Person will Vote | -Social & Demographic Features [Class, Age..]
-Valance [Image] Issues and Economics
-Party Leaders
-Voters make a RATIONAL Choice when Voting
-Campaign and Manifesto
-Tactical Voting & Turnout
-Opinion Polls, and the Media.. |
| What does it mean the ‘Social or Demographic Factors’ | -This takes into account the Voters:
-Social Class, Age, Ethnicity, Gender, and the Region they are in [History, Mood..]
-And how these affect their Voting |
| What is Social Class? | -Classifies People on their Jobs [Occupation] and thus Income.
-They use a sort of Ranking System to split Society:
-AB, C1, C2 and DE.
-Social Classes is a Factor that affects how one will Vote |
| What do the Different Classes, from Social Class, mean? | -AB: Higher, Senior and Professional Occupations such as Banker, Director or Doctor
-C1: Junior Managerial, Supervisory or Administrative such as Teacher, Social Worker or Office Manager
-C2: Skilled Labour Jobs like Plumber, Mechanic or Train Driver
-DE: Semi-Skilled, Unemployed or Unskilled Jobs such as Bar Staff, Call Centre Staff or the Unemployed |
| How do People in the different Classes [From Social Class] vote usually? [In the Past - 1964] | -AB Tends to go for the Conservatives with the DE going for Labour. They do this as the Parties represent them the Best
-1964 GE may be Evident as 64% of DE chose Labour, while 78% of AB chose Conservatives |
| What has Occurred with Social Classing now in Modern Terms? | -Class Dealignment has started, where People have stopped Identifying themselves to a Social Class, which lowers the Impact of Social Class to Voting Behaviour
-Partisan Dealignment also took head where Voters are less going to be Committed or Loyal to a Party. [Red Wall in 2019] |
| State the % of AB Voters [For Conservatives] and DE Voters [For Labour] in the
-1964 GE
-1997 GE
-2017 GE
-2019 GE | -1964 saw 78% of AB to Cons, while 64% for Lab [DE]
-1997 saw 41% of AB to Cons, while 59% for Lab
-2017 saw 43% of AB to Cons, while 47% for Lab
-2019 saw 45% of AB to Cons, while 39% of Lab |
| Why may Social Class still be Relevant in Modern Terms? | -Class Divides can be even in other Ways. BME [Black & Minority] Voters in DE Class may go for Labour eg
-Education may be also another Class Divide, as 58& of those with GCSEs or Below go for Conservatives, and 43% of those with a Degree go for Labor in 2019 GE [Class Divide of Education]
-Economics still may force Working class People to vote for Labour that Taxes the Wealthy more, or the Rich getting the Conservatives for Low Tax |
| Why may Social Class be not Relevant anymore in Modern Terms? | -21st Century has had Class and Partisan Dealignment, along with Issue-based Voting [Brexit] been the Dominant Force.
-2017 GE saw DE split between Conservatives [43%] and Labour [47%]
-2019 GE saw Conservatives get Support from all Social Classes - AB to DE
-Therefore Class is not as important as there is no Clear cut Division between how the Classes vote |
| What Significance, taking into account the Relevance and Irrelevance of Social Class, does it find itself now? | -Class may not be a Reliable Factor on how People will Vote due to Partisan and Class Dealignment
-Class however can find itself in other Forms such as Education which can be used to say how People will Vote. |
| In the 2017 and 2019 General Elections, how did the
-18-24 Yr olds Vote [For Cons and Labs]
-70+ Yr olds | -2017 GE saw, for 18-24 Yr olds, a Clear Split. 27% for Cons, 62% for Lab. 2019 saw 21% for Cons, 56% for Lab
-2017 GE saw, for 70+, 69% for Cons, 19% for Lab. 2019 Ge saw again, 67% for Cons, 14% for Lab. |
| How significant can the Age of a Voter be in terms of Voting Behaviour
[1983, 2017] | -Age has never been as Significant as Today
-1983 saw 42% of 18-24 for Cons and 38% for Labour. This has changed Drastically.
-2017 saw Labour get Majority from 18-39 Yr olds
-YouGov stated that every 10 Years Older a person was in 2019, they would be Less Likely to vote by Labour [decreased by 8 Points] while more likely to favour Cons
-Gap between the Youth and Old is Greater than the Gap of AB and DE Voters. Age therefore more Significant
-Age only has been Important for the last 2 Elections, so the next Election will determine if it remains Important |
| Why may the Youth favour the Labour Party [And be generally Left Wing], and the Old Favour the Conservatives? [Right Wing] | -Younger People may care more for Job Security, Student Debt and Affordable Housing. The Labour Party [Although Kier may say No] wanted to Abolish Tuition Fees and Higher Public Services
-Older may have Carers and Assets and care for Taxation and Pensions. This then aligns themselves with the Conservatives as they promote Lower Taxes and Pension Security
-Youth cares for the Social issues like LGBTQ+ Rights and Environment which Labour has been more Aligned than the Conservatives |
| In the 2019 GE, How did the
-Northeast England
-London
-East Midlands
-Southeast
-Wales
-Scotland
Vote? [Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP for Scotland] | -Northeast: 38% Con, 43% Lab, 7% Lib Dem [Labour W]
-London: 32% Con, 48% Lab. 15% Lib Dem [Labour W]
-East Midlands: 55% Con, 32% Lab, 8% Lib Dem [Cons W]
-Southeast: 54% Con, 22% Lab,18% Lib Dem [Conservative W]
-Wales: 36% Con, 41% Lab, 9.5% Lib Dem [Labour W]
-Scotland: 25% Con, 19% Lab, 9.5% Lib Dem 45% SNP [SNP W] |
| Summarise the main Support [Regions] for Labour, Conservatives and SNP | 1. Labour seems to have London's Backing, as well as North England and Wales
2. Conservatives has the backing of Southeast and East of England
3. SNP generally Dominates Scotland [Even in the Scottish Parliament] |
| 2019 Election, after Brexit, saw some Constituencies that were Strongly wanting to Leave [60%+ Leave] or Strongly Remain.
-How did the 3 Main Parties do [% Change of support from 2017 GE] | -In the Strong Leave Constituencies, the Conservatives got a positive 6,1% Change from 2017. Lib Dems came second with its 2.6%. Labour however did Awful: -10.4% !!
-In the Strong Remain, Lib Dems did best with 4.7% Change, followed with Conservatives with -3% Change, and then Labour with -6.4% Change
-This means Conservative [Pro-Brexit] did Better in Leave Areas, Labour did Awful with the Leave Areas, and the Lib Dems did better [Campaigned to Stop Brexit] in Remain Areas
-Keep in Mind, UK has Left, so Brexit will be less of an Influence - Many Brexiters voted for Labour in the Council Elections |
| How can Region even affect Voting Behaviour - What Influences are there? | -History may be a Cause - Scotland wanted to be Distant from England hence the Success of the SNP
-Regions across Britain have different Economic Priorities - Manufacturing Industries look for Jobs to be Promoted and Supported [Labour] while Services seek the Conservatives
-Social Issues. Immigration is an Example and it can lead to the Conservatives getting Head from their tough Policies. However, Liberty and Rights may support Labour |
| How Relevant is Gender in Voting Behaviour? [2019 Stats] | -Gender looks to have little Influence on Voting
-2019 saw 46% of men and 44% of women vote Conservatives, while 31% of men and 35% women voted Labour. Suggests the Gap isn't as Large and Relevant
-Gender becomes more Relevant in 18-24 yr olds: 65% of Women voted Labour compared to the 46% of men
-But Men and Women between 18-24 voted alot on the Conservatives in 2019, so is it a Question of Age or Gender? |
| Why may Women vote more for Labour and Men for Conservatives? | -Women may care for Economic Inequality, which Labour has been a Fan off [Supporting the Working Class] which Men may not care as much
-Male Politicians may be Criticised by Women for their Behaviour towards them.
-Women care more for Social Issues that promotes Reproductive Rights, Education and Healthcare. Labour seems like a Haven that wants Progressive Social Policies |
| In terms of Ethnicity, how did the BME [Black and Minority Ethnic] vote for in the
1. 2010
2. 2015
3. 2017
4. 2019
-For the 3 Main Parties? What can you Deduce from these 4 Elections? | 1. 2010 saw 16% for Con, 60% for Lab, 20% for Lib Dem
2. 2015 saw 23% for Con, 65% for Lab, 4% for Lib Dem
3. 2017 saw 19% for Con, 73% for Lab, 6% for Lib Dem
4. 2019 saw 20% for Con, 64% for Lab, 12% for Lib Dem
-It can be said that Labour gets the Majority, with the Conservatives coming a Far Second Place and Lib Dems lacking behind as well |
| How is Ethnicity Important in terms of Voting Behaviour? | -2015 saw Conservatives get a 11 Point Lead over Labour in White Voters, and it Increased to 19 in 2019 Election
-Labour gets Solid Support from BME Voters - always getting consistently above 60% since 2010 while Cons do Awful
-Minorities favour the Labour Party, due to their Anti-Immigration Sentiment from the Conservatives [Norman Tebbit] as well as how the Concentration of Immigration Centres in Urban, Industrial Places like London, Manchester and other places |
| How can Ethnicity not be Important in terms of Voting Behaviour? | -Evidence sown that the BME Community is very Complicated in the Voting pattern, and actually Religion plays a bigger Role. Hindu and Sikh vote more for Conservatives
-BME being concentrated in Lower paid Jobs means that the support may be due to Economic and Class Factors, rather than Ethnicity entirely. Many Asian Hindu Voters have become Richer, which may explain them liking the Conservatives |
| What is Valence? | -Valance is the General Image of the Party and Leaders
-Valance ties with the Trust that Voters have on the Parties that are in Government or in Opposition.
-Valance can refer to trust on a Issue/s |
| What is Governing Competency? | -Emotions and Feelings that Voters have towards Parties in their Effectiveness to Govern. This largely goes to their Economic, Foreign Policies, and how Decisive they are |
| Governing Competency. Explain it, and give an Example where it is seen | -Does the Government seem Decisive and do well Last Time it was in Power?
-Conservatives loosing in 1997 can be Partly due to Competency Issues, like the 'Cash for Questions' [Neil Hamilton] and 'Mad Cow Disease' Scandals [Failure to respond Quickly and Effectiveness] |
| Economic Competency. Explain it, and give Examples where it is Seen | -How did the Party manage the Economy last time it was in Power?
-Conservative Party in 1987 Won due to it taking Credit of the Booming Economy
-Labour Party in 2019 had Failed to Explain how it could Fund all the Plans it had proposed in its Manifesto |
| Party Unity. Explain it, and give Examples where it is Seen | -How United [and therefore Trusted] is the Party?
-Conservatives lost 2001 and 2005 GE as they were Bitterly Divided over European Foreign Policy
-Labour in 2017 Election suffered a Loss due to Division. Corbyn had to face a Leadership Election in 2016 [Corbyn's Left Wing, or Old Labour Stance, deeply upset the New Labour] |
| Image of Leaders. Explain it, and give Examples where it is Seen | -Are the Leaders looked on and Trusted?
-Lib Dems in 2010 did well as Nick Clegg was Respected and Liked [After the 1st Leaders Debate, 51% of Respondents said he did Best]
-But he then lost Respect after that and 2015 saw a Humiliating Defeat [Economic Austerity Government, Poor European Parliament Elections, Coaltion with the Conservatives..] |
| Why does Party Leadership affect the Electoral Outcome?
[Tony Blair and Jeremy Corbyn] | -Blair had Huge Approval Ratings which led Labour to get Huge Wins in 1997 and 2001. But this tanked when Blair went to War with Iraq, showcased in their Majority tanking after 2005 GE.
-43% of Labour Voters had voted based on 'Leadership' which shows their Dislike on Corbyn. He may be Blamed to how the 'Red Wall' [Labour Safe Seats] wee Shattered by the Conservatives |
| Why does Party Leadership not affect the Electoral Outcome? | -Winston Churchill had said Attlee was a 'Modest little man with Much to be Modest about.' This prompted Attlee to get a Landslide Victory in 1945. Huge
-Thatcher vs Callaghan. Callaghan had higher Approval Ratings than Thatcher in 1979, but it was the Conservative Party that won the Election |
| What is Salience? | -Salience is Identifying the 'Salient' or Important Issues at the Election Period. Voters are easily swayed by such Issues so Parties must make them the Main Element of their Manifesto and Campaigning |
| What were the Salient Issues in
1. 2019
2. 2010
3. 1979 | 1. Brexit and if Voters wanted a Second Referendum or get Johnson's 'Get Brexit Done'
2. Issue of the Deficit and Public Finances, and if there should be Tax Rises or Public Sector cuts to Solve the Problem
3. Issue of Trade Union Power after the Winter of Discontent |
| What is a:
1. Manifesto
2. Mandate | 1. Manifestos are Commitments made by Each Party at the Start of an Election Campaign.
2. Mandates is the Authority given by the People at Elections to the Winner. The Newly Government can carry out its Manifesto therefore |
| What is the General Election Campaign? | -Period of Time between when the Election is Called [Parliament is Dissolved] to the Election Day.
-Lasts around 4-6 Weeks
-Parties dish out their Manifestos out |
| 1979.
-Give a Reason why the Campaign and Manifesto was, and wasn't Important | -Thatcher made a Disciplined Campaign, and had a Clever Catchphrase 'Labour isn't Working' to signal the Unemployment
-Valence however is what caused the Tory Victory as Labour suffered with the Blame of the Winter of Discontent |
| 1997
-Give a Reason why the Campaign and Manifesto was, and wasn't Important | -Labour tried to do a Cautious Election Campaign for its Poll Lead to be Maintained, and used Blair's Popularity by having his Image on the Front
-Blair also made Labour to appeal to more Middle-Class Voters which he had done Long before the General Election Campaign |
| 2017
-Give a Reason why the Campaign and Manifesto was, and wasn't Important | -The Conservatives had to U-Turn on its Manifesto Commitment on Health and Social Care Reform, after its Policy was called the 'Dementia Tax' [People need to pay 100K for Social Care] Opinion polls had Narrowed therefore
-But the Salient Issue of Brexit had Violently changed the Voting Pattern far more than its Campaign and Manifesto |
| 2019
-Give a Reason why the Campaign and Manifesto was, and wasn't Important | -Labour's Manifesto was well Outrageous and People questioned the Affordability
-Conservatives got a Poll Lead in the Run up to the Campaign, and Corbyn Splitng the Labour Party didn't help them as well |
