How good are point or range forecasts likely to be?

1. There are many sources of change & uncertainty (See all parts of PESTEL) 2. Timing is hard to judge - You know something is coming, but you don’t know when, or how much. 3. When it comes, change comes in lumps. “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” - Vladimir Lenin 4. The future arrives unevenly in different places